Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies Center for Health Policy/Center for Primary Care and Outcomes Research Stanford University


Publications




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A Dynamic Transmission Model for Predicting Trends in Helicobacter pylori and Associated Diseases in the United States

Journal Article

Authors
MF Rupnow
Ross D. Shachter - Stanford University
Douglas K. Owens - Stanford University
Julie Parsonnet - Stanford University

Published by
Emerging Infectious Diseases, Vol. 3 no. 6, page(s) 228-237
May-June 2000


To assess the benefits of intervention programs against Helicobacter pylori infection, we estimated the baseline curves of its incidence and prevalence. We developed a mathematical (compartmental) model of the intrinsic dynamics of H. pylori, which represents the natural history of infection and disease progression. Our model divided the population according to age, infection status, and clinical state. Case-patients were followed from birth to death. A proportion of the population acquired H. pylori infection and became ill with gastritis, duodenal ulcer, chronic atrophic gastritis, or gastric cancer. We simulated the change in transmissibility consistent with the incidence of gastric cancer and duodenal ulcer over time, as well as current H. pylori prevalence. In the United States, transmissibility of H. pylori has decreased to values so low that, should this trend continue, the organism will disappear from the population without targeted intervention; this process, however, will take more than a century.